Will AI Help or Hurt Work and the Economy? What People Around the World Expect

Claudia Bruschi, Francesco D'Acunto, Fiorella De Fiore, Damiano Sandri and Michael Weber

No 13006, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Artificial intelligence may augment workers, displace labor, or do both. We elicit beliefs from more than 64,000 adults across 32 countries, covering 65% of the world's population and 85% of global output. Workers are substantially more likely to expect artificial intelligence to facilitate than threaten their jobs. Facilitation is more prevalent in lower-productivity countries, whereas threat is unrelated to productivity. Facilitation and threat often coexist within individuals, indicating that perceived benefits and risks are distinct rather than opposite dimensions. They are also associated with different macroeconomic expectations: facilitation with stronger expected growth and employment, and threat with weaker employment and higher inflation. These heterogeneous beliefs may shape the diffusion and acceptance of artificial intelligence across countries.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; subjective expectations; labor markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 J24 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain and nep-lma
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13006

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