Firms' Optimism and Pessimism

Ruediger Bachmann and Steffen Elstner (steffen.elstner@brh.bund.de)

No 4176, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo

Abstract: Are firms’ expectations systematically too optimistic or too pessimistic? Does it matter? We use micro data from the West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level and combine them with production expectations over a quarterly horizon in the same survey to construct series of quantitative firm-specific expectation errors. We find that depending on the details of the empirical strategy at least 6 percent and at most 34 percent of firms systematically over- or underpredict their one-quarter-ahead upcoming production. In a simple neoclassical heterogeneous-firm model these expectational biases lead to factor misallocations that cause welfare losses which in the worst case are comparable to conventional estimates of the welfare costs of business cycles fluctuations. In more conservative calibrations the welfare losses are even smaller.

Keywords: survey data; expectation errors; expectation biases; optimism; pessimism; firm data; heterogeneous firms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D22 D84 E20 E22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp4176.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Firm optimism and pessimism (2015)
Working Paper: Firms' Optimism and Pessimism (2013)
Working Paper: Firms' Optimism and Pessimism (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4176

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Klaus Wohlrabe (wohlrabe@ifo.de).