Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective

Nicholas Crafts and Terence Mills

No 11427, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.

Keywords: Growth reversal; Industrial revolution; Malthusian model; Trend growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N13 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-08
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Journal Article: Six centuries of British economic growth: a time-series perspective (2017)
Working Paper: Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective (2016)
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