EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

A theory of regional conflict complexes

Arthur Silve and Thierry Verdier ()

No 11915, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Civil conflicts spill over to neighboring countries. This paper proposes a theory of the contagion of civil wars, emphasizing two main channels of diffusion of a conflict. First, weak territorial control facilitates the emergence of a regional market for war inputs in the "porous frontier". Second, refugees fleeing a conflict zone may unwittingly destabilize their host country. In both cases, the contagion effect is nonlinear and creates multiple equilibrium situations of regional complexes of civil conflicts. This helps explain observed patterns of regional clustering of conflict and state capacity, and raises identification issues in the measurement of the contagion effect. We also derive a positive spillover of civil wars: governments are sometimes in a position to avoid contagion by improving their institutions. Finally,we explore policy implications for military intervention, military and institutional cooperation, and the international coordination of refugee policy.

Keywords: civilwar; contagion; institutional cooperation; military intervention; porous frontier; Refugees; state capacity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 N40 P48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-03
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=11915 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Journal Article: A theory of regional conflict complexes (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: A theory of regional conflict complexes (2018)
Working Paper: A theory of regional conflict complexes (2018) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11915

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... rs/dp.php?dpno=11915

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2019-05-06
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11915