Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception

Aureo de Paula, Grant Miller and Christine Valente

No 14526, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: One-quarter of married, fertile-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa report not wanting a pregnancy and yet do not use contraceptives. To study this issue, we collect detailed data on women’s subjective probabilistic beliefs and estimate a structural model of contraceptive choices. Our results indicate that costly interventions like eliminating supply constraints would only modestly increase contraceptive use. Alternatively, increasing partners’ approval of methods, aligning partners’ fertility preferences with women’s, and correcting women’s beliefs about pregnancy risk absent contraception have the potential to increase use considerably. Results from a within-subject experiment testing this last finding are highly consistent with the structural estimates.

Keywords: Contraception; Probabilistic beliefs; Mozambique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 J13 J16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Subjective expectations and demand for contraception (2025)
Working Paper: Subjective expectations and demand for contraception (2025)
Working Paper: Subjective expectations and demand for contraception (2021)
Working Paper: Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception (2020)
Working Paper: Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception (2020)
Working Paper: Subjective expectations and demand for contraception (2020)
Working Paper: Subjective Expectations and Demand for Contraception (2020)
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