Details about Aureo de Paula

Access statistics for papers by Aureo de Paula.

Last updated 2025-02-07. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pde704

Working Papers

2025

1. Prediction Sets and Conformal Inference with Censored Outcomes
   Papers, arXiv.org
   Also in IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025)
   CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025)

2024

2. Intergenerational mobility in socio-emotional skills
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies
   Also in NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (10)
3. Production Function Estimation Using Subjective Expectations Data
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
   Also in Papers, arXiv.org (2024)
   CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024)
   CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE (2024)
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2024)

2023

4. Identifying Network Ties from Panel Data: Theory and an Application to Tax Competition
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (6)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2018) View citations (25)
   CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023)
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023)
   CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2019) View citations (3)
   CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023)
   POID Working Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE (2023)
5. Nowcasting with signature methods
   Papers, arXiv.org

2022

6. VOG: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Impact of Air Pollution on Student Learning Outcomes
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
   POID Working Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE (2022)
   Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics (2022)
   IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2022)
   Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa (2022)

2021

7. Identification in simple binary outcome panel data models
   CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Identification in simple binary outcome panel data models, The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society (2021) View citations (3) (2021)
8. Subjective expectations and demand for contraception
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies
   Also in Bristol Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK (2020) View citations (17)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (17)
   Working Papers, Center for Global Development (2020)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (17)
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (16)
   CINCH Working Paper Series (since 2020), Duisburg-Essen University Library, DuEPublico (2020) View citations (12)

2020

9. A Sticky-Price View of Hoarding
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (15)
10. Econometric Models of Network Formation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (36)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (33)
    Papers, arXiv.org (2020) View citations (36)
    See also Journal Article Econometric Models of Network Formation, Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews (2020) View citations (36) (2020)
11. Preparing for a pandemic: Spending dynamics and panic buying during the COVID-19 first wave
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (8)
    Also in IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Preparing for a pandemic: spending dynamics and panic buying during the COVID‐19 first wave, Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons (2021) View citations (13) (2021)
12. Testable Implications of Multiple Equilibria in Discrete Games with Correlated Types
    Papers, arXiv.org
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (1)
13. The Informativeness of Estimation Moments
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (8)
    Also in Working Papers, Princeton University. Economics Department. (2020) View citations (3)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (7)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article The informativeness of estimation moments, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2020) View citations (8) (2020)
14. The Persistence of Socio-Emotional Skills Life Cycle and Intergenerational Evidence
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (10)
    Also in Documentos de Trabajo, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) (2020) View citations (10)
    Documentos de Trabajo, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) (2020) View citations (10)
    Working Papers, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group (2020) View citations (9)

2019

15. Sensitivity of Estimation Precision to Moments with an Application to a Model of Joint Retirement Planning of Couples
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies

2018

16. Recovering Social Networks from Panel Data: Identification, Simulations and an Application
    Working Papers, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group View citations (30)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2018) View citations (25)
    Documentos de Trabajo, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) (2018) View citations (32)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2018) View citations (26)

2017

17. Identifying preferences in networks with bounded degree
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (2)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2017)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2016) View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article Identifying Preferences in Networks With Bounded Degree, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2018) View citations (41) (2018)
18. Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates
    Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa
    Also in Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa (2017) View citations (3)
    IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2015) View citations (6)
    Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics (2016)
    See also Journal Article Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates, The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2019) View citations (19) (2019)

2016

19. A new model for interdependent durations with an application to joint retirement
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2016) View citations (1)
20. Econometrics of network models
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (20)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015) View citations (12)
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2016)
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015)

2015

21. Hoard Behavior During Commodity Bubbles
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
22. Hoard Behavior and Commodity Bubbles
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
23. Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological
    Working Papers, Rice University, Department of Economics
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015)
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2013)
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2015)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2013) View citations (5)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2010)
    See also Journal Article Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2017) View citations (5) (2017)
24. Identification of preferences in network formation games
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (1)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015) View citations (24)
25. Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates and SO2
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (3)
    Also in Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics (2015) View citations (3)
    Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa (2015) View citations (3)

2014

26. Interdependent durations in joint retirement
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2013)
    Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Center for Retirement Research (2011) View citations (4)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2014) View citations (1)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2013) View citations (1)
27. Risky sexual behavior: biological markers and self-reported data
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Risky Sexual Behaviours: Biological Markers and Self‐reported Data, Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science (2019) View citations (4) (2019)

2013

28. Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (5)

2012

29. Econometric analysis of games with multiple equilibria
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (5)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2012)
    See also Journal Article Econometric Analysis of Games with Multiple Equilibria, Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews (2013) View citations (76) (2013)

2011

30. How Beliefs about HIV Status Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi, Seventh Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (8)
    Also in PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2010) View citations (2)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2008) View citations (1)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2011) View citations (8)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2008) View citations (4)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2010) View citations (4)
31. Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games with Incomplete Information, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (8)
    Also in PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2010) View citations (1)

2010

32. Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games with Incomplete Information
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (46)
    Also in 2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2010) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games With Incomplete Information, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2012) View citations (82) (2012)
33. Liquidity and Dividend Policy
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
34. The Informal Sector: An Equilibrium Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Brazil, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (2)

2009

35. How Beliefs about HIV Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
36. How Beliefs about HIV Status Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi1, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
37. The Informal Sector: An Equilibrium Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Brazil
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article THE INFORMAL SECTOR: AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL AND SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL, Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth (2011) View citations (85) (2011)
38. Value Added Taxes, Chain Effects and Informality
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article Value-Added Taxes, Chain Effects, and Informality, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2010) View citations (127) (2010)
39. “Value Added Taxes, Chain Effects and Informalityâ€, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (4)

2008

40. "Interdependent Durations" Third Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (1)
41. Conditional Moments and Independence
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Conditional Moments and Independence, The American Statistician, American Statistical Association (2008) View citations (5) (2008)
42. Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
43. Interdependent Durations
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Interdependent Durations, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2010) View citations (8) (2010)
44. Interdependent Durations, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (1)
45. The Informal Sector, Third Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (4)

2007

46. Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Inference in a synchronization game with social interactions, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2009) View citations (27) (2009)
47. The Informal Sector
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (86)
    Also in Levine's Bibliography, UCLA Department of Economics (2006) View citations (22)
    2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2007) View citations (52)
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2007) View citations (57)
    Levine's Bibliography, UCLA Department of Economics (2007) View citations (26)
48. The Informal Sector, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (18)

2004

49. Social Interactions in a Synchronization Game
    Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings, Econometric Society

1999

50. Uma nota sobre a composição ótima da dívida pública - reflexões para o caso brasileiro
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (4)

Journal Articles

2021

1. Identification in simple binary outcome panel data models
   The Econometrics Journal, 2021, 24, (2), C78-C93 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Identification in simple binary outcome panel data models, CeMMAP working papers (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
2. Preparing for a pandemic: spending dynamics and panic buying during the COVID‐19 first wave
   Fiscal Studies, 2021, 42, (2), 249-264 View citations (13)
   See also Working Paper Preparing for a pandemic: Spending dynamics and panic buying during the COVID-19 first wave, CEPR Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (8) (2020)

2020

3. Econometric Models of Network Formation
   Annual Review of Economics, 2020, 12, (1), 775-799 View citations (36)
   See also Working Paper Econometric Models of Network Formation, CEPR Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (36) (2020)
4. The informativeness of estimation moments
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020, 35, (7), 797-813 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper The Informativeness of Estimation Moments, Papers (2020) View citations (8) (2020)

2019

5. Risky Sexual Behaviours: Biological Markers and Self‐reported Data
   Economica, 2019, 86, (342), 229-261 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Risky sexual behavior: biological markers and self-reported data, CEPR Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (6) (2014)
6. Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates
   The Economic Journal, 2019, 129, (620), 1782-1816 View citations (19)
   See also Working Paper Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates, Working Papers (2017) (2017)

2018

7. A new model for interdependent durations
   Quantitative Economics, 2018, 9, (3), 1299-1333 View citations (8)
8. Identifying Preferences in Networks With Bounded Degree
   Econometrica, 2018, 86, (1), 263-288 View citations (41)
   See also Working Paper Identifying preferences in networks with bounded degree, CeMMAP working papers (2017) View citations (2) (2017)

2017

9. Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological
   The Review of Economic Studies, 2017, 84, (3), 1238-1263 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological, Working Papers (2015) (2015)
10. Special Issue on Econometrics of Networks: Editorial
    Econometrics Journal, 2017, 20, (3), Si-Sii

2014

11. HOW BELIEFS ABOUT HIV STATUS AFFECT RISKY BEHAVIORS: EVIDENCE FROM MALAWI
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, 29, (6), 944-964 View citations (32)

2013

12. Econometric Analysis of Games with Multiple Equilibria
    Annual Review of Economics, 2013, 5, (1), 107-131 View citations (76)
    See also Working Paper Econometric analysis of games with multiple equilibria, CeMMAP working papers (2012) View citations (5) (2012)

2012

13. Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games With Incomplete Information
    Econometrica, 2012, 80, (1), 143-172 View citations (82)
    See also Working Paper Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games with Incomplete Information, PIER Working Paper Archive (2010) View citations (46) (2010)

2011

14. THE INFORMAL SECTOR: AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL AND SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL
    Review of Income and Wealth, 2011, 57, S8-S26 View citations (85)
    See also Working Paper The Informal Sector: An Equilibrium Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Brazil, PIER Working Paper Archive (2009) View citations (9) (2009)

2010

15. Interdependent Durations
    The Review of Economic Studies, 2010, 77, (3), 1138-1163 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Interdependent Durations, PIER Working Paper Archive (2008) View citations (3) (2008)
16. Value-Added Taxes, Chain Effects, and Informality
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2010, 2, (4), 195-221 View citations (127)
    See also Working Paper Value Added Taxes, Chain Effects and Informality, PIER Working Paper Archive (2009) View citations (21) (2009)

2009

17. Inference in a synchronization game with social interactions
    Journal of Econometrics, 2009, 148, (1), 56-71 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions, PIER Working Paper Archive (2007) View citations (9) (2007)

2008

18. Conditional Moments and Independence
    The American Statistician, 2008, 62, 219-221 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Conditional Moments and Independence, PIER Working Paper Archive (2008) View citations (5) (2008)

Chapters

2020

1. Trade Networks and the Strength of Strong Ties
   A chapter in The Econometrics of Networks, 2020, vol. 42, pp 83-110