Details about Aureo de Paula

Access statistics for papers by Aureo de Paula.

Last updated 2025-04-06. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pde704

Working Papers

2025

1. Intergenerational mobility in socio-emotional skills
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies
   Also in IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (10)
2. Prediction Sets and Conformal Inference with Censored Outcomes
   Papers, arXiv.org
   Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025)
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2025)
3. Vog: using volcanic eruptions to estimate the impact of air pollution on student test scores
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies

2024

4. Production Function Estimation Using Subjective Expectations Data
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
   Also in CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE (2024)
   CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2024)
   Papers, arXiv.org (2024)
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024)

2023

5. Identifying Network Ties from Panel Data: Theory and an Application to Tax Competition
   Papers, arXiv.org View citations (6)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2018) View citations (25)
   CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023)
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023)
   POID Working Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE (2023)
   CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2019) View citations (4)
   CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2023)
6. Nowcasting with signature methods
   Papers, arXiv.org

2022

7. VOG: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Impact of Air Pollution on Student Learning Outcomes
   IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
   POID Working Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE (2022)
   Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics (2022)
   Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa (2022)
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2022)

2021

8. Identification in simple binary outcome panel data models
   CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article Identification in simple binary outcome panel data models, The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society (2021) View citations (3) (2021)
9. Subjective expectations and demand for contraception
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies
   Also in Working Papers, Center for Global Development (2020)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (17)
   CINCH Working Paper Series (since 2020), Duisburg-Essen University Library, DuEPublico (2020) View citations (12)
   NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (2020) View citations (17)
   Bristol Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK (2020) View citations (17)
   IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (16)

2020

10. A Sticky-Price View of Hoarding
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (15)
11. Econometric Models of Network Formation
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (36)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (33)
    Papers, arXiv.org (2020) View citations (36)
    See also Journal Article Econometric Models of Network Formation, Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews (2020) View citations (36) (2020)
12. Preparing for a pandemic: Spending dynamics and panic buying during the COVID-19 first wave
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (8)
    Also in IFS Working Papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article Preparing for a pandemic: spending dynamics and panic buying during the COVID‐19 first wave, Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons (2021) View citations (13) (2021)
13. Testable Implications of Multiple Equilibria in Discrete Games with Correlated Types
    Papers, arXiv.org
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (1)
14. The Econometrics of Networks
    Post-Print, HAL
15. The Informativeness of Estimation Moments
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (8)
    Also in Working Papers, Princeton University. Economics Department. (2020) View citations (3)
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (7)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article The informativeness of estimation moments, Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2020) View citations (8) (2020)
16. The Persistence of Socio-Emotional Skills Life Cycle and Intergenerational Evidence
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (10)
    Also in Documentos de Trabajo, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) (2020) View citations (10)
    Working Papers, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group (2020) View citations (9)
    Documentos de Trabajo, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) (2020) View citations (10)

2019

17. Sensitivity of Estimation Precision to Moments with an Application to a Model of Joint Retirement Planning of Couples
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies

2018

18. Recovering Social Networks from Panel Data: Identification, Simulations and an Application
    Working Papers, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group View citations (30)
    Also in Documentos de Trabajo, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association (LACEA) (2018) View citations (32)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2018) View citations (26)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2018) View citations (25)

2017

19. Identifying preferences in networks with bounded degree
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2016) View citations (19)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2017) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article Identifying Preferences in Networks With Bounded Degree, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2018) View citations (41) (2018)
20. Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates
    Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa
    Also in IZA Discussion Papers, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA) (2015) View citations (6)
    Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics (2016)
    Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa (2017) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates, The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society (2019) View citations (21) (2019)

2016

21. A new model for interdependent durations with an application to joint retirement
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (1)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2016)
22. Econometrics of network models
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2016) View citations (20)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015) View citations (12)

2015

23. Hoard Behavior During Commodity Bubbles
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
24. Hoard Behavior and Commodity Bubbles
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (3)
25. Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2013) View citations (5)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015)
    Working Papers, Rice University, Department of Economics (2015)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2010)
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2013)
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015)
    See also Journal Article Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2017) View citations (5) (2017)
26. Identification of preferences in network formation games
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (1)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2015) View citations (24)
27. Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates and SO2
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (3)
    Also in Working Papers, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics (2015) View citations (3)
    Working Papers, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa (2015) View citations (3)

2014

28. Interdependent durations in joint retirement
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (1)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2014)
    CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2013)
    Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Center for Retirement Research (2011) View citations (4)
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2013) View citations (1)
29. Risky sexual behavior: biological markers and self-reported data
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Risky Sexual Behaviours: Biological Markers and Self‐reported Data, Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science (2019) View citations (4) (2019)

2013

30. Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (5)

2012

31. Econometric analysis of games with multiple equilibria
    CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies View citations (5)
    Also in CeMMAP working papers, Institute for Fiscal Studies (2012)
    See also Journal Article Econometric Analysis of Games with Multiple Equilibria, Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews (2013) View citations (77) (2013)

2011

32. How Beliefs about HIV Status Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi, Seventh Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (8)
    Also in PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2011) View citations (8)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2008) View citations (4)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2010) View citations (4)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2010) View citations (2)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2008) View citations (1)
33. Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games with Incomplete Information, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (8)
    Also in PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2010) View citations (1)

2010

34. Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games with Incomplete Information
    2010 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics View citations (4)
    Also in PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2010) View citations (46)
    See also Journal Article Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games With Incomplete Information, Econometrica, Econometric Society (2012) View citations (82) (2012)
35. Liquidity and Dividend Policy
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (1)
36. The Informal Sector: An Equilibrium Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Brazil, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (2)

2009

37. How Beliefs about HIV Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi
    2009 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics
38. How Beliefs about HIV Status Affect Risky Behaviors: Evidence from Malawi1, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
39. The Informal Sector: An Equilibrium Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Brazil
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article THE INFORMAL SECTOR: AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL AND SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL, Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth (2011) View citations (85) (2011)
40. Value Added Taxes, Chain Effects and Informality
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article Value-Added Taxes, Chain Effects, and Informality, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association (2010) View citations (129) (2010)
41. “Value Added Taxes, Chain Effects and Informalityâ€, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (4)

2008

42. "Interdependent Durations" Third Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (1)
43. Conditional Moments and Independence
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article Conditional Moments and Independence, The American Statistician, American Statistical Association (2008) View citations (5) (2008)
44. Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania
45. Interdependent Durations
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article Interdependent Durations, The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd (2010) View citations (8) (2010)
46. Interdependent Durations, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (1)
47. The Informal Sector, Third Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (4)

2007

48. Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (9)
    See also Journal Article Inference in a synchronization game with social interactions, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier (2009) View citations (27) (2009)
49. The Informal Sector
    NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (57)
    Also in 2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics (2007) View citations (52)
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania (2007) View citations (86)
    Levine's Bibliography, UCLA Department of Economics (2006) View citations (22)
    Levine's Bibliography, UCLA Department of Economics (2007) View citations (26)
50. The Informal Sector, Second Version
    PIER Working Paper Archive, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania View citations (18)

2004

51. Social Interactions in a Synchronization Game
    Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings, Econometric Society

1999

52. Uma nota sobre a composição ótima da dívida pública - reflexões para o caso brasileiro
    Textos para discussão, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) View citations (4)

Journal Articles

2021

1. Identification in simple binary outcome panel data models
   The Econometrics Journal, 2021, 24, (2), C78-C93 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper Identification in simple binary outcome panel data models, CeMMAP working papers (2021) View citations (2) (2021)
2. Preparing for a pandemic: spending dynamics and panic buying during the COVID‐19 first wave
   Fiscal Studies, 2021, 42, (2), 249-264 View citations (13)
   See also Working Paper Preparing for a pandemic: Spending dynamics and panic buying during the COVID-19 first wave, CEPR Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (8) (2020)

2020

3. Econometric Models of Network Formation
   Annual Review of Economics, 2020, 12, (1), 775-799 View citations (36)
   See also Working Paper Econometric Models of Network Formation, CEPR Discussion Papers (2020) View citations (36) (2020)
4. The informativeness of estimation moments
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020, 35, (7), 797-813 View citations (8)
   See also Working Paper The Informativeness of Estimation Moments, Papers (2020) View citations (8) (2020)

2019

5. Risky Sexual Behaviours: Biological Markers and Self‐reported Data
   Economica, 2019, 86, (342), 229-261 View citations (4)
   See also Working Paper Risky sexual behavior: biological markers and self-reported data, CEPR Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (6) (2014)
6. Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates
   The Economic Journal, 2019, 129, (620), 1782-1816 View citations (21)
   See also Working Paper Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates, Working Papers (2017) (2017)

2018

7. A new model for interdependent durations
   Quantitative Economics, 2018, 9, (3), 1299-1333 View citations (8)
8. Identifying Preferences in Networks With Bounded Degree
   Econometrica, 2018, 86, (1), 263-288 View citations (41)
   See also Working Paper Identifying preferences in networks with bounded degree, CeMMAP working papers (2017) (2017)

2017

9. Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological
   The Review of Economic Studies, 2017, 84, (3), 1238-1263 View citations (5)
   See also Working Paper Identification and Estimation of Preference Distributions When Voters Are Ideological, CEPR Discussion Papers (2015) (2015)
10. Special Issue on Econometrics of Networks: Editorial
    Econometrics Journal, 2017, 20, (3), Si-Sii

2014

11. HOW BELIEFS ABOUT HIV STATUS AFFECT RISKY BEHAVIORS: EVIDENCE FROM MALAWI
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, 29, (6), 944-964 View citations (32)

2013

12. Econometric Analysis of Games with Multiple Equilibria
    Annual Review of Economics, 2013, 5, (1), 107-131 View citations (77)
    See also Working Paper Econometric analysis of games with multiple equilibria, CeMMAP working papers (2012) View citations (5) (2012)

2012

13. Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games With Incomplete Information
    Econometrica, 2012, 80, (1), 143-172 View citations (82)
    See also Working Paper Inference of Signs of Interaction Effects in Simultaneous Games with Incomplete Information, 2010 Meeting Papers (2010) View citations (4) (2010)

2011

14. THE INFORMAL SECTOR: AN EQUILIBRIUM MODEL AND SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL
    Review of Income and Wealth, 2011, 57, S8-S26 View citations (85)
    See also Working Paper The Informal Sector: An Equilibrium Model and Some Empirical Evidence from Brazil, PIER Working Paper Archive (2009) View citations (9) (2009)

2010

15. Interdependent Durations
    The Review of Economic Studies, 2010, 77, (3), 1138-1163 View citations (8)
    See also Working Paper Interdependent Durations, PIER Working Paper Archive (2008) View citations (3) (2008)
16. Value-Added Taxes, Chain Effects, and Informality
    American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2010, 2, (4), 195-221 View citations (129)
    See also Working Paper Value Added Taxes, Chain Effects and Informality, PIER Working Paper Archive (2009) View citations (21) (2009)

2009

17. Inference in a synchronization game with social interactions
    Journal of Econometrics, 2009, 148, (1), 56-71 View citations (27)
    See also Working Paper Inference in a Synchronization Game with Social Interactions, PIER Working Paper Archive (2007) View citations (9) (2007)

2008

18. Conditional Moments and Independence
    The American Statistician, 2008, 62, 219-221 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper Conditional Moments and Independence, PIER Working Paper Archive (2008) View citations (5) (2008)

Chapters

2020

1. Trade Networks and the Strength of Strong Ties
   A chapter in The Econometrics of Networks, 2020, vol. 42, pp 83-110