Subjective Expectations of Husbands and Wives and Couples’ Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Aureo de Paula and Christine Valente

No 21887, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Many decisions are taken jointly by multiple individuals. When outcomes are uncertain, decision-makers may have different subjective expectations (“beliefs†) about the consequences of different choices. We develop a tractable empirical framework for identifying the relative influence of joint decision-makers’ beliefs without assuming Pareto optimality when beliefs differ. We apply the framework to contraceptive choices in Nigeria, examining the relative weight couples place on wives’ versus husbands’ beliefs. We find that spouses have different subjective expectations, and that the weight placed on each spouse’s beliefs varies across domains. Therefore, the optimal targeting of information interventions to husbands or wives is domain-dependent.

Keywords: Nigeria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D10 D83 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-08
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