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Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions

Christiane Baumeister (), Dimitris Korobilis and Thomas K. Lee

No 14580, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper evaluates alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of the most useful indicators that has been proposed in the literature. However, by combining measures from a number of different sources we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and new measures for assessing future tightness of energy demand and expected oil price pressures.

Keywords: Energy demand; Forecasting; oil price pressures; petroleum consumption; state of the world economy; stochastic volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C32 C52 Q41 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-for
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Working Paper: Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions (2020) Downloads
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