The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden

Benjamin Born, Alexander Dietrich and Müller, Gernot
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gernot J. Müller

No 14744, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 infections, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 38%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3-4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, we find that a lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss.

Keywords: Covid-19; Lockdown; Counterfactual; Synthetic control unit; Voluntary social restraint; Google mobility reports; Output loss (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C4 E0 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (28)

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Journal Article: The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden (2021)
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