Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space

Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, Matthew Delventhal and Nezih Guner
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde

No 16708, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: The demographic transition --the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime-- is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data.

Keywords: Demographic transition; Skill-biased technological change; Diffusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 N3 O11 O33 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-11
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP16708 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space (2024)
Working Paper: Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space (2022)
Working Paper: Demographic Transitions across Time and Space (2022)
Working Paper: Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space (2021)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16708

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP16708

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().