Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space

Matthew Delventhal, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Nezih Guner

No 29480, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The demographic transition --the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime-- is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data.

JEL-codes: J13 N13 O11 O33 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-evo, nep-gro, nep-his and nep-lab
Note: EFG
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space (2024)
Working Paper: Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space (2022)
Working Paper: Demographic Transitions across Time and Space (2022)
Working Paper: Demographic Transitions Across Time and Space (2021)
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