Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

Gordon Dahl, Runjing Lu and William Mullins

No 16821, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

Keywords: Fertility; Partisanship; Elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-12
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Related works:
Journal Article: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2022)
Working Paper: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2021)
Working Paper: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2021)
Working Paper: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2021)
Working Paper: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2021)
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