Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

Gordon Dahl, Runjing Lu and William Mullins

No 29058, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

JEL-codes: D72 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-isf and nep-pol
Note: CH EH LS PE POL
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Published as Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, vol 4(4), pages 473-490.

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Related works:
Journal Article: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2022)
Working Paper: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2021)
Working Paper: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2021)
Working Paper: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2021)
Working Paper: Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (2021)
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