Trade Liberalization, Economic Activity, and Political Violence in the Global South: Evidence from PTAs

Francesco Amodio, Leonardo Baccini, Giorgio Chiovelli and Michele Di Maio

No 18037, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of agricultural trade liberalization on economic activity and political violence in emerging countries. We use data on all Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) signed between 25 low- and middle-income countries and their high-income trade partners between 1995 and 2013. We exploit the implied reduction in agricultural tariffs over time combined with variation within countries in their suitability to produce liberalized crops to find that economic activity increases differentially in affected areas. We also find strong positive effects on political violence, and present evidence consistent with both producer- and consumer-side mechanisms: violence increases in more urbanized areas that are suitable to produce less labor-intensive crops as well as crops that are consumed locally. Our estimates imply that economic activity and political violence would have been around 2% and 7% lower, respectively, across countries in our sample had the PTAs not been signed.

Keywords: agriculture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D22 D24 F51 N45 O12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-03
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://cepr.org/publications/DP18037 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Journal Article: Trade liberalization, economic activity and political violence in the Global South: evidence from PTAs (2024)
Working Paper: Trade Liberalization, Economic Activity, and Political Violence in the Global South: Evidence from PTAs (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18037

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
https://cepr.org/publications/DP18037

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 33 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DX.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().