Geopolitical Risk Perceptions

Yevheniia Bondarenko, Vivien Lewis, Matthias Rottner and Schüler, Yves
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Yves Stephan Schüler

No 18123, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that local geopolitical risk shocks have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially

Date: 2023-04
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Related works:
Journal Article: Geopolitical risk perceptions (2024)
Working Paper: Geopolitical risk perceptions (2024)
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