Vax Populi: the Social Costs of Online Vaccine Skepticism

Matilde Giaccherini, Joanna Kopinska and Gabriele Rovigatti

No 18788, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: This paper quantifies the impact of online vaccine skepticism on pediatric vaccine uptake, vaccine-preventable hospitalizations, and their related costs. We propose an instrumental variable strategy that leverages the complex structure of social networks. By matching Italian vaccine-related tweets for 2013-2018 with vaccine coverage and preventable hospitalizations data, we find that a 10pp increase in anti-vaccine sentiment causes a 0.43pp decrease in Measles-Mumps-Rubella vaccine coverage. This shift results in an additional 2.1 hospitalizations per 100,000 residents and an 11% increase in relevant healthcare expenses. Conversely, we find no statistically significant impact on vaccines not targeted by online misinformation (e.g., Hexavalent, Meningococcal, Pneumococcal). The results of a simulated model further suggest that informative campaigns are the most effective method to mitigate the effects of online misinformation and reduce polarization.

Keywords: Social Networks; Twitter; Vaccines; Polarization; Text analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C81 D85 I18 L82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-01
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Working Paper: Vax Populi: The Social Costs of Online Vaccine Skepticism (2022)
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