Refugee Immigration and Natives’ Fertility

Aya Aboulhosn, Cevat Giray Aksoy and Berkay Ozcan

No 19930, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Debates about immigration’s role in addressing population aging typically concentrate on immigrant fertility rates. Moreover, standard projections account for migration’s impact on overall population growth while largely overlooking how immigration might affect native fertility. In contrast, we show that forced immigration influences native fertility as well. We investigate this relationship by examining the influx of refugees into Türkiye following the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Using two complementary instrumental variable strategies, we find robust evidence that native fertility increases in response to forced migration. This result holds across three distinct datasets and is further supported by a corresponding rise in subjective fertility measures, such as the ideal number of children. Additionally, we explore four potential mechanisms and document significant heterogeneity in fertility responses among different native subgroups. Our findings suggest that factors related to the labor market and norm transmission may help explain the observed increase in native fertility.

JEL-codes: F22 J13 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-02
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