The Innovation Race: Large Experimental Evidence on Advanced Technologies

Cullen, Zöe, Ester Faia, Elisa Guglielminetti, Ricardo Perez-Truglia and Concetta Rondinelli

No 20894, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: We present a large-scale field experiment testing for strategic complementarities in firms' technology adoption. Our experiment was embedded in a Bank of Italy survey covering around 3,000 firms. We elicited firms' beliefs about competitors' adoption of two advanced technologies: artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics. We randomly provided half of the sample with a signal about adoption among comparable firms. Relative to this signal, most firms substantially underestimated competitors' adoption, and those provided with the information updated their expectations about competitors' future adoption. The information increased firms' intended future adoption of robotics: a 1~pp increase in the share of competitors expected to adopt advanced technologies causes a 0.732~pp increase in the firm's intention to adopt robotics by 2027. Our findings provide causal evidence on coordination in innovation and illustrate how information frictions shape technology diffusion.

Keywords: Innovation; Experiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C93 D22 D84 L21 O31 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-eur, nep-exp, nep-sbm and nep-tid
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