Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets

Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz

No 5562, CEPR Discussion Papers from Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract: Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.

Keywords: Prediction markets; Information markets; Event futures; Prediction iv; Instrumental variables; Market manipulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C9 D7 D8 G1 M2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fin, nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Five Open Questions about Prediction Markets (2006)
Working Paper: Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets (2006)
Working Paper: Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets (2006)
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