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Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets

Justin Wolfers () and Eric Zitzewitz ()

No 5562, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.

Keywords: event futures; information markets; instrumental variables; market manipulation; prediction IV; prediction markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C9 D7 D8 G1 M2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fin, nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-rmg
Date: 2006-03
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Working Paper: Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets (2006) Downloads
Working Paper: Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets (2006) Downloads
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