Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update

Andrew Rose and Mark Spiegel

No 7901, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: We update Rose and Spiegel (2009a, b) and search for simple quantitative models of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the "Great Recession" of 2008-09. We use a cross-country approach and examine a number of potential causes that have been found to be successful indicators of crisis intensity by other scholars. We check a number of different indicators of crisis intensity, and a variety of different country samples. While countries with higher income seemed to suffer worse crises, we find few clear reliable indicators in the pre-crisis data of the incidence of the Great Recession. Countries with current account surpluses seemed better insulated from slowdowns.

Keywords: Cross-section; Current account; Data; Early warning; Empirical; Gdp; Growth; Recession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E65 F30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-06
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (57)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update (2011)
Working Paper: Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update (2011)
Working Paper: Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update (2010)
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