EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting

Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers () and Eric Zitzewitz ()

No 9059, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models.

Keywords: forecasting; prediction markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
Date: 2012-07
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (8) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=9059 (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Chapter: Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting (2012) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9059

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/ ... ers/dp.php?dpno=9059

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
Bibliographic data for series maintained by (). This e-mail address is bad, please contact .

 
Page updated 2018-03-28
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9059