How to use demand systems to evaluate risky projects, with an application to automobile production

Richard Friberg and Cristian Huse ()

No 9266, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This article introduces a method to quantify the effect of a firm?s strategic choices on the risk profile of its profits at different horizons. We combine a demand system for differentiated products with counterfactual paths of risk factors. Prices, costs and quantities respond endogenously to the counterfactual state of the world. The draws on risk factors are generated using copulas, in a way that flexibly can be adapted to the risks faced in various industries. We illustrate the method by studying how the US operations of German carmakers BMW and Porsche are affected by the decision to relocate production, i.e. operational hedging. We find that for plausible costs of building a plant, production in the US is attractive for BMW, but not for Porsche.

Keywords: Demand estimation; Exchange rate exposure; Operational hedging; Risk management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F23 L16 L62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ppm and nep-rmg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Working Paper: How to use demand systems to evaluate risky projects, with an application to automobile production (2012)
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