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The Age-Productivity Profile:Long-Run Evidence from Italian Regions

Federico Barbiellini Amidei (), Matteo Gomellini (), Lorenzo Incoronato () and Paolo Piselli ()

No 2019, CReAM Discussion Paper Series from Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London

Abstract: This paper leverages spatial and time-series variation in the population age structure of Italian regions to uncover the causal effect of demographic shifts on labour productivity. Such effect is analysed along a ‘first-order’ channel stemming from the direct relation between an individual’s age and productivity, and a ‘second-order’ channel that captures the productivity implications of a more or less dispersed age distribution. We propose an estimation framework that relates labour productivity to the entire age distribution of the working-age population and employs instrumental variable techniques to address endogeneity issues. The estimates return a hump-shaped age-productivity profile, with a peak between 35 and 40 years, as well as a positive productivity effect associated with a more dispersed age distribution.

Keywords: productivity; demography; age distribution; working-age population; long-run (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J21 N30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eff, nep-eur and nep-lma
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