Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of The 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results

Ali Akarca () and Aysıt Tansel ()

No 321, Working Papers from Economic Research Forum

Abstract: 1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election and the economic and political conditions surrounding it were utilized to study the relationship between the government=s economic performance and the vote shares of political parties. Turkish voters are found to be myopic, not looking back beyond the election year in assessing the government=s economic performance. A good performance is found to benefit the primary incumbent party at the expense of extremist opposition parties and a bad performance is found to benefit extremist opposition parties at the expense of the primary party in power. The junior party in a coalition government and the centrist opposition parties appear to be unaffected by the economic conditions. Evidence found is consistent with a strategic voting by the electorate, to diffuse power and/or to try parties and leaders that were not tried before or last tried a long time ago. These conclusions are essentially in conformity with the literature on other countries.

Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2003-17-07, Revised 2003
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published by The Economic Research Forum (ERF)

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