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Thinking Outside the Box: Do SPF Respondents Have Anchored Inflation Expectations?

Carola Binder (), Wesley Janson and Randal Verbrugge ()

No 201915, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Abstract: Despite the stability of the median 10-year inflation expectations in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) near 2 percent, we show that not a single SPF respondent?s expectations have been anchored at the target since the Federal Open Market Committee?s (FOMC) enactment of an inflation target in January 2012, or even since 2015. However, we find significant evidence for ?delayed anchoring,? or a move toward being anchored, particularly after the federal funds rate lifted off in December 2015.

Keywords: inflation expectations; persistent disagreement; credibility; delayed anchoring (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E37 E52 E7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 pages
Date: 2019-08-20
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201915

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