Real-time GDP Growth Forecasts

Sheila Dolmas and Evan Koenig

No 9710, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Abstract: The authors forecast current-quarter real GDP growth using monthly data that would have been available to an analyst in real time. They demonstrate that using real-time data is of major importance both when estimating GDP forecasting models and when evaluating their performance. Moreover, the authors show that the out-of-sample forecasting performance of their model is comparable or superior to that of the Blue-Chip consensus forecast provided that more than one month of current-quarter data are available

Keywords: Gross; domestic; product (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997
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