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The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound

Christopher J. Gust, David Lopez-Salido (), Matthew Smith () and Edward Herbst ()
Additional contact information
Christopher J. Gust: Northwestern University

No 2012-83, Finance and Economics Discussion Series from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Abstract: Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a nonlinear DSGE model in which the interest-rate lower bound is occasionally binding. We quantify the size and nature of disturbances that pushed the U.S. economy to the lower bound in late 2008 as well as the contribution of the lower bound constraint to the resulting economic slump. We find that the interest-rate lower bound was a significant constraint on monetary policy that exacerbated the recession and inhibited the recovery, as our mean estimates imply that the zero lower bound (ZLB) accounted for about 30 percent of the sharp contraction in U.S. GDP that occurred in 2009 and an even larger fraction of the slow recovery that followed.

JEL-codes: C11 C32 E32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2012, Revised 2016-02-12
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https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2012/201283/201283pap.pdf Full text (Original) (application/pdf)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2012/files/201283r1pap.pdf Full text (2nd Revision) (application/pdf)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2012/files/201283pap.pdf Full text (1st Revision) (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound (2012) Downloads
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