International Finance Discussion Papers

From Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
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1309: Bought, Sold and Bought Again: The Impact of Complex Value Chains on Export Elasticities

François de Soyres, Erik Frohm, Vanessa Gunnella and Elena Pavlova

1308: The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R**

Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Benigno, Marco Del Negro and Albert Queraltó

1307: Optimizing Credit Gaps for Predicting Financial Crises: Modelling Choices and Tradeoffs

Daniel Beltran, Mohammad Jahan-Parvar and Fiona A. Paine

1306: Common Trade Exposure and Business Cycle Comovement

Oscar Avila-Montealegre and Carter Mix

1305: Financial Integration and the Co-Movement of Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States

Martin Goetz and Juan Carlos Gozzi

1304: Technology, Geography, and Trade over Time: The Dynamic Effects of Changing Trade Policy

Carter Mix

1303: Trade Credit, Markups, and Relationships

Alvaro Garcia-Marin, Santiago Justel and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

1302: Intermediary Asset Pricing during the National Banking Era

Colin Weiss

1301: Exchange Rates and Endogenous Productivity

Nils Gornemann, Pablo Guerron and Felipe Saffie

1300: Investor Sentiment and the (Discretionary) Accrual-return Relation

Jiajun Jiang, Qi Liu and Bo Sun

1299: The Stock Market Response to a "Regulatory Sine Curve"

Bo Sun, Xuan S. Tam and Eric Young

1298: Does Unemployment Risk Affect Business Cycle Dynamics?

Sebastian Graves

1297: Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets

Demian Pouzo and Ignacio Presno

1296: Artificial Intelligence Methods for Evaluating Global Trade Flows

Feras A. Batarseh, Munisamy Gopinath and Anderson Monken

1295: Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery

Chang Ma, John Rogers and Sili Zhou

1294: What is Certain about Uncertainty?

Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Deepa Datta, Thiago Revil T. Ferreira, Olesya Grishchenko, Mohammad Jahan-Parvar, Juan M. Londono, Francesca Loria, Sai Ma, Marius Rodriguez, John Rogers, Cisil Sarisoy and Ilknur Zer

1293: Scarcity of Safe Assets and Global Neutral Interest Rates

Thiago Revil T. Ferreira and Samer Shousha

1292: Computerizing Households and the Role of Investment-Specific Productivity in Business Cycles

Seunghoon Na and Hyunseung Oh

1291: Natural Disasters, Climate Change, and Sovereign Risk

Enrico Mallucci

1290: The State Dependent Effectiveness of Hiring Subsidies

Sebastian Graves

1289: U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity

Ricardo Correa, Wenxin Du and Gordon Liao

1288: Related Exposures to Distressed Borrowers and Bank Lending

Sumit Agarwal, Ricardo Correa, Bernardo Morais, Jessica Roldan Peña and Claudia Ruiz-Ortega

1287: Bank Complexity, Governance, and Risk

Ricardo Correa and Linda Goldberg

1286: Capital Flows, Asset Prices, and the Real Economy: A "China Shock" in the U.S. Real Estate Market

Zhimin Li, Leslie Sheng Shen and Calvin Zhang

1285: Monetary Policy Expectations, Fund Managers, and Fund Returns: Evidence from China

John Ammer, John Rogers, Gang Wang and Yang Yu

1284: Taxation, Social Welfare, and Labor Market Frictions

Brendan Epstein, Ryan Nunn, Musa Orak and Elena Patel

1283: The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination

Gordon Liao and Tony Zhang

1282: Global Trade and GDP Co-Movement

François de Soyres and Alexandre Gaillard

1281: The Impact of Financial Sanctions: The Case of Iran 2011-2016

Saeed Ghasseminejad and Mohammad Jahan-Parvar

1280: The Economics of Platforms in a Walrasian Framework

Anil K. Jain and Robert Townsend

1279: Uncertainty and Growth Disasters

Boyan Jovanovic and Sai Ma

1278: Emerging Markets and the New Geography of Trade: The Effects of Rising Trade Barriers

Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Sharon Traiberman and Eva Van Leemput

1277: Patent-Based News Shocks

Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia and Marija Vukotic

1276: Sovereign Risk Matters: The Effects of Endogenous Default Risk on the Time-Varying Volatility of Interest Rate Spreads

Sergio de Ferra and Enrico Mallucci

1275: Avoiding Sovereign Default Contagion: A Normative Analysis

Sergio de Ferra and Enrico Mallucci

1274: How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs?

François de Soyres, Alen Mulabdic, Siobhan Murray, Nadia Rocha and Michele Ruta

1273: Common Transport Infrastructure: A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative

François de Soyres, Alen Mulabdic and Michele Ruta

1272: Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints

S. Boragan Aruoba, Pablo Cuba-Borda, Kenji Higa-Flores, Frank Schorfheide and Sergio Villalvazo

1271: The Elusive Gains from Nationally-Oriented Monetary Policy

Martin Bodenstein, Giancarlo Corsetti and Luca Guerrieri

1270: Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism

Kyle Handley, Fariha Kamal and Ryan Monarch

1269: When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets

Jasper Hoek, Steven B. Kamin and Emre Yoldas

1268: How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets

Nathan Converse, Eduardo Levy Yeyati and Tomas Williams

1267: Household Debt and the Heterogeneous Effects of Forward Guidance

Francesco Ferrante and Matthias Paustian

1266: Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries

François de Soyres and Alexandre Gaillard

1265: The Effect of U.S. Stress Tests on Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets

Emily Liu, Friederike Niepmann and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

1264: The Self-Employment Option in Rigid Labor Markets: An Empirical Investigation

Joaquin Garcia-Cabo and Rocio Madera

1263: Oil Prices and Consumption across Countries and U.S. States

Andrea De Michelis, Thiago Revil T. Ferreira and Matteo Iacoviello

1262: Dealer Leverage and Exchange Rates: Heterogeneity Across Intermediaries

Ricardo Correa and Laurie Pounder DeMarco

1261: Differential Treatment in the Bond Market: Sovereign Risk and Mutual Fund Portfolios

Nathan Converse and Enrico Mallucci

1260: Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing

Shaghil Ahmed, Ricardo Correa, Daniel Dias, Nils Gornemann, Jasper Hoek, Anil K. Jain, Edith Liu and Anna Wong