Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time

Todd Clark and Sharon Kozicki

No RWP 04-08, Research Working Paper from Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Abstract: We use a range of simple models and 22 years of real-time data vintages for the U.S. to assess the difficulties of estimating the equilibrium real interest rate in real time. Model specifications differ according to whether the time-varying equilibrium real rate is linked to trend growth, and whether potential output and growth are defined by the CBO's estimates or treated as unobserved variables. Our results reveal a high degree of specification uncertainty, an important one-sided filtering problem, and considerable imprecision due to data uncertainty. Also, the link between trend growth and the equilibrium real rate is shown to be quite weak. Overall, we conclude that statistical estimates of the equilibrium real rate will be difficult to use reliably in practical policy applications.

Keywords: Interest rates; Real time data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time (2005)
Working Paper: Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real-time (2004)
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