Details about Todd Clark

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Workplace:	Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, (more information at EDIRC)

Access statistics for papers by Todd Clark.

Last updated 2023-08-04. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: pcl55

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Working Papers

2023

1. Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2022) View citations (6)
   Papers, arXiv.org (2022) View citations (6)
2. Shadow-rate VARs
   Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank

2022

3. Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility
   Discussion Papers, Deutsche Bundesbank View citations (6)
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2021) View citations (16)
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2021) View citations (22)
4. Capturing Macroeconomic Tail Risks with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2020) View citations (16)
5. Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
6. Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context
   CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
   Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2022) View citations (1)
   See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2022)
7. Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2021)
8. Specification Choices in Quantile Regression for Empirical Macroeconomics
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
9. Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
   Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (2)
   Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2022)
   See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (2023)
10. What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

2021

11. Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (1)
12. Investigating Growth at Risk Using a Multi-country Non-parametric Quantile Factor Model
    Papers, arXiv.org View citations (5)
    Also in Working Papers, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics (2021) View citations (3)
13. Nowcasting Tail Risk to Economic Activity at a Weekly Frequency
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2022)
14. Using Time-Varying Volatility for Identification in Vector Autoregressions: An Application to Endogenous Uncertainty
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2021)

2020

15. No-Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2014) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2021)
16. Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (26)

2019

17. Assessing International Commonality in Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Effects
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (4)
    Also in CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers (2019) View citations (4)
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2018) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2020)

2018

18. Endogenous Uncertainty
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (4)

2017

19. Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (6)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2017) View citations (7)
    BIS Working Papers, Bank for International Settlements (2017) View citations (6)
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2017) View citations (7)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2020)

2016

20. Have Standard VARs Remained Stable Since the Crisis?
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (6)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2014) View citations (9)
    Working Paper, Norges Bank (2014) View citations (14)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2017)
21. Large Vector Autoregressions with Stochastic Volatility and Flexible Priors
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (12)
22. Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (10)
    Also in BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy (2016) View citations (27)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (2018)

2015

23. A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long-Run Inflation Expectations
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (22)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2018)
24. Large Vector Autoregressions with Asymmetric Priors
    Working Papers, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance View citations (22)
25. Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts with External Nowcasts
    Working Papers, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School View citations (1)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2015) View citations (1)
    VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association (2015) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2017)

2014

26. Evaluating Conditional Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (11)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2014) View citations (12)
27. Tracing Out Capital Flows: How Financially Integrated Banks Respond to Natural Disasters
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (15)

2013

28. Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (7)
29. Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (10)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2012) View citations (3)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (2015)

2012

30. Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (36)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2012) View citations (24)
    Economics Working Papers, European University Institute (2012) View citations (36)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2016)
31. The macroeconomic forecasting performance of autoregressive models with alternative specifications of time-varying volatility
    Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland View citations (6)
    Also in Working Paper, Norges Bank (2012) View citations (17)

2011

32. A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (10)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2011) View citations (17)
33. Advances in forecast evaluation
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (9)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2011) View citations (13)
    See also Chapter (2013)
34. Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy
    CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers View citations (45)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2011) View citations (10)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2015)
35. Tests of equal forecast accuracy for overlapping models
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    Also in Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2011) View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2014)

2010

36. Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (5)
37. Testing for unconditional predictive ability
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (10)

2009

38. Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2011)
39. In-sample tests of predictive ability: a new approach
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2009) View citations (1)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2012)
40. Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (7)
    Also in Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2009) View citations (28)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2015)
41. Real-time density forecasts from VARs with stochastic volatility
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (6)
42. Time variation in the inflation passthrough of energy prices
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (5)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2010)

2008

43. An empirical assessment of the relationships among inflation and short- and long-term expectations
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (14)
44. Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (10)
    Also in Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2007) View citations (1)
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2006) View citations (12)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2010)
45. Combining forecasts from nested models
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (2)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2006) View citations (7)
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) (2007) View citations (4)
    See also Journal Article in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2009)
46. Improving forecast accuracy by combining recursive and rolling forecasts
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2004) View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article in International Economic Review (2009)
47. Tests of equal predictive ability with real-time data
    Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis View citations (3)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2007) View citations (19)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (2009)

2007

48. Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities
    Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) View citations (16)

2006

49. Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (15)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2005) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2007)
50. Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (5)

2005

51. Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference
    NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc View citations (12)

2004

52. Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (13)
    Also in Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies, Deutsche Bundesbank (2004) View citations (21)
    See also Journal Article in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance (2005)
53. Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (17)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2006)

2003

54. Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Applied Econometrics (2006)
55. The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence
    Computing in Economics and Finance 2003, Society for Computational Economics View citations (22)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2003) View citations (23)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (2006)

2002

56. Forecast-based model selection in the presence of structural breaks
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (11)

2001

57. Evaluating long-horizon forecasts
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (26)

2000

58. Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Forecasting (2004)
59. Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models
    Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers, Econometric Society View citations (26)
    Also in Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (1999) View citations (8)
    Computing in Economics and Finance 1999, Society for Computational Economics (1999) View citations (13)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Econometrics (2001)

1999

60. Borders and business cycles
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (21)
    Also in Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (1999) View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article in Journal of International Economics (2001)

1998

61. The sources of fluctuations within and across countries
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (52)

1997

62. Do producer prices help predict consumer prices?
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (4)

1996

63. Finite-sample properties of tests for forecast equivalence
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (6)
64. The responses of prices at different stages of production to monetary policy shocks
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (2)
    See also Journal Article in The Review of Economics and Statistics (1999)

1995

65. Forecasting an aggregate of cointegrated disaggregates
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
66. Small sample properties of estimators of non-linear models of covariance structure
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
    See also Journal Article in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics (1996)

1994

67. A comparison of two approaches to measuring common and idiosyncratic components in sets of time series variables
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

1993

68. Cross-country evidence on long run growth and inflation
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (16)
    See also Journal Article in Economic Inquiry (1997)
69. Rents and prices of housing across areas of the U.S.: a cross-section examination of the present value model
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (2)

1992

70. Business cycle fluctuations in U.S. regions and industries: the roles of national, region-specific, and industry-specific shocks
    Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City View citations (7)

Journal Articles

2023

1. TAIL FORECASTING WITH MULTIVARIATE BAYESIAN ADDITIVE REGRESSION TREES
   International Economic Review, 2023, 64, (3), 979-1022
   See also Working Paper (2022)
2. The Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation
   Economic Commentary, 2023, 2023, (08), 8 View citations (1)

2022

3. Macroeconomic forecasting in a multi‐country context
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37, (6), 1230-1255 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper (2022)
4. Nowcasting tail risk to economic activity at a weekly frequency
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2022, 37, (5), 843-866 View citations (3)
   See also Working Paper (2021)

2021

5. No‐arbitrage priors, drifting volatilities, and the term structure of interest rates
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2021, 36, (5), 495-516
   See also Working Paper (2020)
6. Using time-varying volatility for identification in Vector Autoregressions: An application to endogenous uncertainty
   Journal of Econometrics, 2021, 225, (1), 47-73 View citations (7)
   See also Working Paper (2021)

2020

7. Assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects
   Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020, 35, (3), 273-293 View citations (16)
   See also Working Paper (2019)
8. Credit Market Frictions, Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy: The Research Contributions of Charles Carlstrom and Timothy Fuerst
   Economic Commentary, 2020, 2020, (07), 5
9. Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors
   The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2020, 102, (1), 17-33 View citations (17)
   See also Working Paper (2017)

2019

10. Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors
    Journal of Econometrics, 2019, 212, (1), 137-154 View citations (115)

2018

11. A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2018, 50, (1), 5-53 View citations (44)
    See also Working Paper (2015)
12. Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018, 100, (5), 799-815 View citations (116)
    See also Working Paper (2016)

2017

13. Have Standard VARS Remained Stable Since the Crisis?
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017, 32, (5), 931-951 View citations (28)
    See also Working Paper (2016)
14. Tests of Predictive Ability for Vector Autoregressions Used for Conditional Forecasting
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2017, 32, (3), 533-553 View citations (8)
15. Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2017, 35, (3), 470-485 View citations (33)
    See also Working Paper (2015)

2016

16. Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2016, 34, (3), 375-390 View citations (122)
    See also Working Paper (2012)

2015

17. Bayesian VARs: Specification Choices and Forecast Accuracy
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015, 30, (1), 46-73 View citations (112)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
18. Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance under Alternative Specifications of Time‐Varying Volatility
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015, 30, (4), 551-575 View citations (172)
19. Measuring Inflation Forecast Uncertainty
    Economic Commentary, 2015, 2015, (03), 6 View citations (3)
20. Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy
    Journal of Econometrics, 2015, 186, (1), 160-177 View citations (41)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
21. Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 2015, 178, (4), 837-862 View citations (70)
    See also Working Paper (2013)

2014

22. 2013 Annual Report Why Inflation Is Very Low, and Why It Matters
    Annual Report, 2014, 1-42 View citations (1)
23. Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation
    International Journal of Forecasting, 2014, 30, (3), 426-448 View citations (63)
24. HOW THE ECONOMY WORKS: CONFIDENCE, CRASHES, AND SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECIES BY ROGER E. A. FARMERRoger E. A. Farmer Oxford University Press, New York, 2010
    Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2014, 18, (3), 721-725
25. TESTS OF EQUAL FORECAST ACCURACY FOR OVERLAPPING MODELS
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2014, 29, (3), 415-430 View citations (5)
    See also Working Paper (2011)
26. The Importance of Trend Inflation in the Search for Missing Disinflation
    Economic Commentary, 2014, (Aug) View citations (1)

2013

27. Forecasting implications of the recent decline in inflation
    Economic Commentary, 2013, (Nov) View citations (2)

2012

28. In-sample tests of predictive ability: A new approach
    Journal of Econometrics, 2012, 170, (1), 1-14 View citations (20)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
29. Policy rules in macroeconomic forecasting models
    Economic Commentary, 2012, (Oct) View citations (1)
30. Reality Checks and Comparisons of Nested Predictive Models
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012, 30, (1), 53-66 View citations (38)
    Also in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2011, 30, (1), 53-66 (2011) View citations (3)

2011

31. Decomposing the declining volatility of long-term inflation expectations
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2011, 35, (7), 981-999 View citations (37)
    See also Working Paper (2009)
32. Food and energy price shocks: what other prices are affected?
    Economic Commentary, 2011, (Aug)
33. Real-Time Density Forecasts From Bayesian Vector Autoregressions With Stochastic Volatility
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2011, 29, (3), 327-341 View citations (287)
    Also in Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2011, 29, (3), 327-341 (2011) View citations (344)

2010

34. Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (1), 5-29 View citations (39)
    Also in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2010, 25, (1), 5-29 (2010) View citations (111)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
35. Time Variation in the Inflation Passthrough of Energy Prices
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2010, 42, (7), 1419-1433 View citations (41)
    Also in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2010, 42, (7), 1419-1433 (2010) View citations (68)
    See also Working Paper (2009)

2009

36. Combining Forecasts from Nested Models*
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009, 71, (3), 303-329 View citations (12)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
37. IMPROVING FORECAST ACCURACY BY COMBINING RECURSIVE AND ROLLING FORECASTS
    International Economic Review, 2009, 50, (2), 363-395 View citations (81)
    See also Working Paper (2008)
38. Is the Great Moderation over? an empirical analysis
    Economic Review, 2009, 94, (Q IV), 5-42 View citations (36)
39. Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2009, 27, (4), 441-454 View citations (77)
    See also Working Paper (2008)

2008

40. Has the behavior of inflation and long-term inflation expectations changed?
    Economic Review, 2008, 93, (Q I), 17-50 View citations (15)

2007

41. Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2007, 138, (1), 291-311 View citations (1238)
    See also Working Paper (2006)

2006

42. Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation
    Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2006, 21, (5), 563-587 View citations (5)
    Also in Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2006, 21, (5), 563-587 (2006) View citations (91)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
43. The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence
    Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2006, 38, (5), 1127-1148 View citations (98)
    See also Working Paper (2003)
44. The trend growth rate of employment: past, present, and future
    Economic Review, 2006, 91, (Q I), 43-85 View citations (3)
45. Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis
    Journal of Econometrics, 2006, 135, (1-2), 155-186 View citations (336)
    See also Working Paper (2004)

2005

46. Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time
    The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2005, 16, (3), 395-413 View citations (113)
    See also Working Paper (2004)
47. Evaluating Direct Multistep Forecasts
    Econometric Reviews, 2005, 24, (4), 369-404 View citations (154)
48. The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks
    Journal of Econometrics, 2005, 124, (1), 1-31 View citations (68)

2004

49. An evaluation of the decline in goods inflation
    Economic Review, 2004, 89, (Q II), 19-51 View citations (7)
50. Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?
    Journal of Forecasting, 2004, 23, (2), 115-139 View citations (52)
    See also Working Paper (2000)

2001

51. Borders and business cycles
    Journal of International Economics, 2001, 55, (1), 59-85 View citations (317)
    See also Working Paper (1999)
52. Comparing measures of core inflation
    Economic Review, 2001, 86, (Q II), 5-31 View citations (47)
53. Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models
    Journal of Econometrics, 2001, 105, (1), 85-110 View citations (709)
    See also Working Paper (2000)

1999

54. A comparison of the CPI and the PCE price index
    Economic Review, 1999, 84, (Q III), 15-29 View citations (19)
55. The Responses Of Prices At Different Stages Of Production To Monetary Policy Shocks
    The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1999, 81, (3), 420-433 View citations (72)
    See also Working Paper (1996)

1998

56. Employment Fluctuations in U.S. Regions and Industries: The Roles of National, Region-Specific, and Industry-Specific Shocks
    Journal of Labor Economics, 1998, 16, (1), 202-29 View citations (66)
57. Progress toward price stability: a 1997 inflation report
    Economic Review, 1998, 83, (Q I), 5-21

1997

58. Cross-country Evidence on Long-Run Growth and Inflation
    Economic Inquiry, 1997, 35, (1), 70-81 View citations (46)
    See also Working Paper (1993)
59. U.S. inflation developments in 1996
    Economic Review, 1997, (Q I), 11-30

1996

60. Small-Sample Properties of Estimators of Nonlinear Models of Covariance Structure
    Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1996, 14, (3), 367-73 View citations (48)
    See also Working Paper (1995)
61. U.S. inflation developments in 1995
    Economic Review, 1996, 81, (Q I), 27-42

1995

62. Do producer prices lead consumer prices?
    Economic Review, 1995, 80, (Q III), 25-39 View citations (22)
63. Rents and prices of housing across areas of the United States. A cross-section examination of the present value model
    Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1995, 25, (2), 237-247 View citations (24)

1994

64. Nominal GDP targeting rules: can they stabilize the economy?
    Economic Review, 1994, 79, (Q III), 11-25 View citations (12)

Chapters

2013

1. Advances in Forecast Evaluation
   Elsevier View citations (107)
   See also Working Paper (2011)
2. Evaluating the Accuracy of Forecasts from Vector Autoregressions☆The views expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve System, or any of its staff
   A chapter in VAR Models in Macroeconomics – New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims, 2013, vol. 32, pp 117-168

2008

3. Chapter 3 Forecasting with Small Macroeconomic VARs in the Presence of Instabilities
   A chapter in Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty, 2008, pp 93-147