How strong is co-movement in employment over the business cycle? Evidence from state/industry data

Gerald Carlino and Robert H. DeFina

No 03-5, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Abstract: This study measures the extent of co-movement in employment across states and industries at business-cycle frequencies. The strength of co-movement is quantified using the bi-variate and multi-variate measures of cohesion developed in Crous, Forni, and Reichlin (2001). The data indicate that cohesion is generally positive for the state/industry pairs, although the distribution masses around a relatively low value. The results suggest that cohesion has risen over time and that cohesion increases with spatial aggregation. Evidence is presented revealing that the measured degree of co-movement is sensitive to the chosen periodicity of the data and that there is much greater cohesion across states for a given industry than across different industries within a state. An investigation into the sources of cross-state variation in cohesion reveals that important determinants include the strength of input-output linkages within each state, the different effects of monetary policy actions on each state's employment, and the degree of industrial diversity within a state. No state-level support is found for Shea's (1996) hypothesis that industries that locate together co-move to a greater extent than do those that are more spatially diffused.

Keywords: Employment; (Economic; theory) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-geo, nep-lab and nep-mac
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