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The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility

Gerald Carlino (), Robert H. DeFina and Keith Sill ()

No 07-11, Working Papers from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Abstract: This study documents a general decline in the volatility of employment growth during the period 1960 to 2002 and examines its possible sources. A unique aspect of the analysis is the use of state-level panel data. Estimates from a pooled cross-section/time-series model indicate that aggregate and state-level factors each explain an important share of the total variation in state-level volatility. Specifically, state-level factors have contributed as much as 29 percent, while aggregate factors are found to account for up to 45 percent of the variation. With regard to state-level factors, the share of state total employment in manufacturing and state banking deregulation each contributed significantly to fluctuations in volatility. Among the aggregate factors separately identified, monetary policy, changes in the inventory-to-sales ratio, changes in the ratio of total trade to GDP, and oil prices significantly affected state-level volatility, although to differing degrees.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Date: 2007
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Related works:
Journal Article: The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility (2011) Downloads
Working Paper: The long and large decline in state employment growth volatility (2009) Downloads
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