Working Papers

From Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
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22-03: Bond Insurance and Public Sector Employment

Natee Amornsiripanitch

22-01: Democratic Political Economy of Financial Regulation

Igor Livshits and Youngmin Park

21-44: Visualization, Identification, and stimation in the Linear Panel Event-Study Design

Simon Freyaldenhoven, Christian Hansen, Jorge Pérez Pérez and Jesse Shapiro

21-43: Assessment Frequency and Equity of the Real Property Tax: Latest Evidence from Philadelphia

Alaina Barca, Lei Ding, Yulin Hou and David Schwegman

21-42: Consumer Credit with Over-Optimistic Borrowers

Florian Exler, Igor Livshits, James (Jim) MacGee and Michele Tertilt

21-41: Financial Consequences of Severe Identity Theft in the U.S

Nathan Blascak, Julia Cheney, Robert Hunt, Vyacheslav Mikhed, Dubravka Ritter and Michael Vogan

21-40: Corporate Disclosure: Facts or Opinions?

Shimon Kogan and Vitaly Meursault

21-40: Eviction and Poverty in American Cities

Robert Collinson, John Humphries, Nicholas Mader, Davin Reed, Daniel Tannenbaum and Winnie van Dijk

21-39: Individual and Local Effects of Unemployment on Mortgage Defaults

Kevin Bazer and Silvio Rendon

21-38: Dynamic Pricing of Credit Cards and the Effects of Regulation

Suting Hong, Robert Hunt and Konstantinos Serfes

21-37: Is GDP Becoming Obsolete? The 'Beyond GDP' Debate

Charles Hulten and Leonard Nakamura

21-37: Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currency?

Todd Keister and Daniel Sanches

21-36: Reducing Strategic Default in a Financial Crisis

Sumit Agarwal, Slava Mikhed, Barry Scholnick and Man Zhang

21-35: Decomposing Gender Differences in Bankcard Credit Limits

Nathan Blascak and Anna Tranfaglia

21-34: The Heterogeneous Impact of Referrals on Labor Market Outcomes

Benjamin Lester, David Rivers and Giorgio Topa

21-32: A Tale of Two Bailouts: Effects of TARP and PPP on Subprime Consumer Debt

Allen N. Berger, Onesime Epouhe and Raluca Roman

21-31: Refining Set-Identification in VARs through Independence

Thorsten Drautzburg and Jonathan Wright

21-31: Climate Risks in the U.S. Banking Sector: Evidence from Operational Losses and Extreme Storms

Allen N. Berger, Filippo Curti, Nika Lazaryan, Atanas Mihov and Raluca Roman

21-30: Geometric Methods for Finite Rational Inattention

Roc Armenter, Michèle Müller-Itten and Zachary Strangebye

21-29: Rational Inattention via Ignorance Equivalence

Roc Armenter, Michèle Müller-Itten and Zachary Strangebye

21-28: COVID-19 and Auto Loan Origination Trends

Jose J. Canals-Cerda and Brian Jonghwan Lee

21-27: The Geography of Job Tasks

Enghin Atalay, Sebastian Sotelo and Daniel Tannenbaum

21-26: DO NON-COMPETE COVENANTS INFLUENCE STATE STARTUP ACTIVITY? EVIDENCE FROM THE MICHIGAN EXPERIMENT

Gerald Carlino

21-25: Defragmenting Markets: Evidence from Agency MBS

Haoyang Liu, Zhaogang Song and James Vickery

21-24: Capital Buffers in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics

P. Dean Corbae and Pablo D'Erasmo

21-23: Aging and the Real Interest Rate in Japan: A Labor Market Channel

Shigeru Fujita and Ippei Fujiwara

21-22: Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation

Shigeru Fujita, Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien Postel-Vinay

21-21: Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

Jonas E. Arias, Juan F Rubio-Ramirez and Minchul Shin

21-20: How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Andreas Fuster, Aurel Hizmo, Lauren Lambie-Hanson, James Vickery and Paul Willen

21-19: Piercing Through Opacity: Relationships and Credit Card Lending to Consumers and Small Businesses During Normal Times and the COVID-19 Crisis

Allen N. Berger, Christa H. S. Bouwman, Lars Norden, Raluca Roman, Gregory Udell and Teng Wang

21-18: Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs

Jonas E. Arias, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Juan F Rubio-Ramirez and Minchul Shin

21-17: Which Lenders Are More Likely to Reach Out to Underserved Consumers: Banks versus Fintechs versus Other Nonbanks?

Erik Dolson and Julapa Jagtiani

21-16: Household Mortgage Refinancing Decisions Are Neighbor Influenced

W. Ben McCartney and Avni Shah

21-15: Factor Models with Local Factors—Determining the Number of Relevant Factors

Simon Freyaldenhoven

21-14: “Sort Selling”: Political Polarization and Residential Choice

W. Ben McCartney, John Orellana and Calvin Zhang

21-13: Is a Friend in Need a Friend Indeed? How Relationship Borrowers Fare during the COVID-19 Crisis

Allen N. Berger, Christa H. S. Bouwman, Lars Norden, Raluca Roman and Gregory Udell

21-12: The Behavioral Relationship Between Mortgage Prepayment and Default

Arden Hall and Ramain Quinn Maingi

21-10: Unexpected Effects of Bank Bailouts: Depositors Need Not Apply and Need Not Run

Allen N. Berger, Martien Lamers, Raluca Roman and Koen Schoors

21-09: Inequality in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency and Forbearance

Xudong An, Lawrence R. Cordell, Liang Geng and Keyoung Lee

21-08: Does CFPB Oversight Crimp Credit?

Andreas Fuster, Matthew Plosser and James Vickery

21-07: PEAD.txt: Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Using Text

Pierre Jinghong Liang, Vitaly Meursault, Bryan Routledge and Madeline Marco Scanlon

21-06: On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates

Francis Diebold, Minchul Shin and Boyuan Zhang

21-05: Eviction Risk of Rental Housing: Does It Matter How Your Landlord Finances the Property?

Brent Ambrose, Xudong An and Luis López

21-04: Using High-Frequency Evaluations to Estimate Discrimination: Evidence from Mortgage Loan Officers∗

Marco Giacoletti, Rawley Heimer and Edison Yu

21-03: Measuring disagreement in probabilistic and density forecasts

Ryan Cumings-Menon, Minchul Shin and Keith Sill

21-02: DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors

Siddhartha Chib, Minchul Shin and Fei Tan

21-01: Can We Take the “Stress” Out of Stress Testing? Applications of Generalized Structural Equation Modeling to Consumer Finance

Jose J. Canals-Cerda

20-47: What Future for History Dependence in Spatial Economics?

Jeffrey Lin and Ferdinand Rauch

20-46: Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic

Enrico Berkes, Olivier Deschenes, Ruben Gaetani, Jeffrey Lin and Christopher Severen

20-45: Financial Instability with Circulating Debt Claims and Endogenous Debt Limits

Daniel Sanches