Working Papers

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12-20: Do falling iceberg costs explain recent U.S. export growth?

George Alessandria and Horag Choi

12-19: On the inherent instability of private money

Daniel Sanches

12-18: Credit risk analysis of credit card portfolios under economic stress conditions

Piu Banerjee and Jose J. Canals-Cerda

12-17: Building the Innovation Union: Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis

Alice Nakamura, Leonard Nakamura and Masao Nakamura

12-16: Trade wedges, inventories, and international business cycles

George Alessandria, Joseph Kaboski and Virgiliu Midrigan

12-15: Insuring student loans against the financial risk of failing to complete college

Satyajit Chatterjee and Felicia Ionescu

12-14: Debt dilution and seniority in a model of defaultable sovereign debt

Satyajit Chatterjee and Burcu Eyigungor

12-13: A primer on market discipline and governance of financial institutions for those in a state of shocked disbelief

Joseph Hughes and Loretta Mester

12-12: Getting rid of paper: savings from Check 21

David B. Humphrey and Robert Hunt

12-11: Private liquidity and banking regulation

Cyril Monnet and Daniel Sanches

12-10: Nonlinear adventures at the zero lower bound

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Grey Gordon, Pablo Guerron and Juan F Rubio-Ramirez

12-9: Forecast bias in two dimensions

Dean Croushore

12-8: Market run-ups, market freezes, inventories, and leverage

Philip Bond and Yaron Leitner

12-7: The private premium in public bonds

Anna Kovner and Chenyang Wei

12-6: Financial globalization, inequality, and the raising of public debt

Marina Azzimonti and Vincenzo Quadrini

12-5: Home production and Social Security reform

Michael Dotsey, Wenli Li and Fang Yang

12-4: Bayesian estimation of DSGE models

Pablo Guerron and James Nason

12-3: Common and idiosyncratic disturbances in developed small open economies

Pablo Guerron

12-2: Exogenous vs. endogenous separation

Shigeru Fujita and Garey Ramey

12-1: The macroeconomics of firms' savings

Roc Armenter and Viktoria Hnatkovska

11-48: Optimal labor-market policy in recessions

Philip Jung and Keith Kuester

11-47: Supply-side policies and the zero lower bound

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Pablo Guerron and Juan F Rubio-Ramirez

11-46: Large capital infusions, investor reactions, and the return and risk performance of financial institutions over the business cycle and recent finanical crisis

Elyas Elyasiani, Loretta Mester and Michael S. Pagano

11-45: On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms

Francis Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz

11-44: Declining labor turnover and turbulence

Shigeru Fujita

11-43: Soverign risk and the effects of fiscal retrenchment in deep recessions

Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, Andre Meier and Gernot Müller

11-42: The agglomeration of R&D labs

Gerald Carlino, Jake Carr, Robert Hunt and Tony E. Smith

11-41: Improving GDP measurement: a forecast combination perspective

S. Boragan Aruoba, Francis Diebold, Jeremy J. Nalewaik, Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song

11-40: Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?

Michael Dotsey, Shigeru Fujita and Tom Stark

11-39: Rising indebtedness and temptation: a welfare analysis

Makoto Nakajima

11-38: Portage and path dependence

Hoyt Bleakley and Jeffrey Lin

11-37: How much did banks pay to become too-big-to-fail and to become systematically important?

Elijah Brewer and Julapa Jagtiani

11-36: Trading dynamics in decentralized markets with adverse selection

Braz Camargo and Benjamin Lester

11-35: Dealing with consumer default: bankruptcy vs. garnishment

Satyajit Chatterjee and Grey Gordon

11-34: Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?

Domenico Ferraro, Kenneth Rogoff and Barbara Rossi

11-33: Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk

Satyajit Chatterjee and Burcu Eyigungor

11-32: Fiscal volatility shocks and economic activity

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Pablo Guerron, Keith Kuester and Juan F Rubio-Ramirez

11-31: Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

Atsushi Inoue and Barbara Rossi

11-30: Collateral damage: Sizing and assessing the subprime CDO crisis

Lawrence R. Cordell, Yilin Huang and Meredith Williams

11-29: On the implementation of Markov-perfect monetary policy

Michael Dotsey and Andreas Hornstein

11-28: Optimal monetary policy in a model of money and credit

Pedro Gomis-Porqueras and Daniel Sanches

11-27: Who said large banks don't experience scale economies? Evidence from a risk-return-driven cost function

Joseph Hughes and Loretta Mester

11-26: A quantitative analysis of the U.S. housing and mortgage markets and the foreclosure crisis

Satyajit Chatterjee and Burcu Eyigungor

11-25: Real-time data and fiscal policy analysis: a survey of the literature

Jacopo Cimadomo

11-24: Core measures of inflation as predictors of total inflation

Theodore M. Crone, N. Neil K. Khettry, Loretta Mester and Jason A. Novak

11-23: The dynamics of public investment under persistent electoral advantage

Marina Azzimonti

11-22: The trust preferred CDO market: from start to (expected) finish

Lawrence R. Cordell, Michael Hopkins and Yilin Huang

11-21: Partisan cycles and the consumption volatility puzzle

Marina Azzimonti and Matthew Talbert

11-20: Inference for VARs identified with sign restrictions

Eleonora Granziera, Mihye Lee, Hyungsik Moon and Frank Schorfheide

11-19: Establishment heterogeneity, exporter dynamics, and the effects of trade liberalization

George Alessandria and Horag Choi