Working Papers

From Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
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21-26: DO NON-COMPETE COVENANTS INFLUENCE STATE STARTUP ACTIVITY? EVIDENCE FROM THE MICHIGAN EXPERIMENT

Gerald Carlino

21-25: Defragmenting Markets: Evidence from Agency MBS

Haoyang Liu, Zhaogang Song and James Vickery

21-24: Capital Buffers in a Quantitative Model of Banking Industry Dynamics

P. Dean Corbae and Pablo D'Erasmo

21-23: Aging and the Real Interest Rate in Japan: A Labor Market Channel

Shigeru Fujita and Ippei Fujiwara

21-22: Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation

Shigeru Fujita, Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien Postel-Vinay

21-21: Macroeconomic Forecasting and Variable Ordering in Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models

Jonas E. Arias, Juan F Rubio-Ramirez and Minchul Shin

21-20: How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Andreas Fuster, Aurel Hizmo, Lauren Lambie-Hanson, James Vickery and Paul Willen

21-19: Piercing Through Opacity: Relationships and Credit Card Lending to Consumers and Small Businesses During Normal Times and the COVID-19 Crisis

Allen N. Berger, Christa H. S. Bouwman, Lars Norden, Raluca Roman, Gregory Udell and Teng Wang

21-18: Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs

Jonas E. Arias, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Juan F Rubio-Ramirez and Minchul Shin

21-17: Which Lenders Are More Likely to Reach Out to Underserved Consumers: Banks versus Fintechs versus Other Nonbanks?

Erik Dolson and Julapa Jagtiani

21-16: Household Mortgage Refinancing Decisions Are Neighbor Influenced

W. Ben McCartney and Avni Shah

21-15: Factor Models with Local Factors—Determining the Number of Relevant Factors

Simon Freyaldenhoven

21-14: “Sort Selling”: Political Polarization and Residential Choice

W. Ben McCartney, John Orellana and Calvin Zhang

21-13: Is a Friend in Need a Friend Indeed? How Relationship Borrowers Fare during the COVID-19 Crisis

Allen N. Berger, Christa H. S. Bouwman, Lars Norden, Raluca Roman and Gregory Udell

21-12: The Behavioral Relationship Between Mortgage Prepayment and Default

Arden Hall and Ramain Quinn Maingi

21-10: Unexpected Effects of Bank Bailouts: Depositors Need Not Apply and Need Not Run

Allen N. Berger, Martien Lamers, Raluca Roman and Koen Schoors

21-09: Inequality in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency and Forbearance

Xudong An, Lawrence R. Cordell, Liang Geng and Keyoung Lee

21-08: Does CFPB Oversight Crimp Credit?

Andreas Fuster, Matthew Plosser and James Vickery

21-07: PEAD.txt: Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Using Text

Pierre Jinghong Liang, Vitaly Meursault, Bryan Routledge and Madeline Marco Scanlon

21-06: On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates

Francis Diebold, Minchul Shin and Boyuan Zhang

21-05: Eviction Risk of Rental Housing: Does It Matter How Your Landlord Finances the Property?

Brent Ambrose, Xudong An and Luis López

21-04: Using High-Frequency Evaluations to Estimate Discrimination: Evidence from Mortgage Loan Officers∗

Marco Giacoletti, Rawley Heimer and Edison Yu

21-03: Measuring disagreement in probabilistic and density forecasts

Ryan Cumings-Menon, Minchul Shin and Keith Sill

21-02: DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors

Siddhartha Chib, Minchul Shin and Fei Tan

21-01: Can We Take the “Stress” Out of Stress Testing? Applications of Generalized Structural Equation Modeling to Consumer Finance

Jose J. Canals-Cerda

20-47: What Future for History Dependence in Spatial Economics?

Jeffrey Lin and Ferdinand Rauch

20-46: Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic

Enrico Berkes, Olivier Deschenes, Ruben Gaetani, Jeffrey Lin and Christopher Severen

20-45: Financial Instability with Circulating Debt Claims and Endogenous Debt Limits

Daniel Sanches

20-44: Firm Technology Upgrading Through Emerging Work

Enghin Atalay

WP 20-43: Corporate Bond Liquidity During the COVID-19 Crisis

Mahyar Kargar, Benjamin Lester, David Lindsay, Shuo Liu, Pierre-Olivier Weill and Diego Zuniga

20-42: Missouri’s Medicaid Contraction and Consumer Financial Outcomes

James Bailey, Nathan Blascak and Vyacheslav Mikhed

20-41: Evidence of Accelerating Mismeasurement of Growth and Inflation in the U.S. in the 21st Century

Leonard Nakamura

20-40: The Role of Government and Private Institutions in Credit Cycles in the U.S. Mortgage Market

Manuel Adelino, W. Ben McCartney and Antoinette Schoar

20-39: A Quantitative Theory of the Credit Score

Satyajit Chatterjee, P. Dean Corbae, Kyle Dempsey and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull

20-38: The Geography of Travel Behavior in the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jeffrey Brinkman and Kyle Mangum

20-37: Mortgage Loss Severities: What Keeps Them So High?

Xudong An and Lawrence R. Cordell

20-36: Post-Merger Product Repositioning: An Empirical Analysis

Enghin Atalay, Alan Sorensen, Christopher Sullivan and Wanjia Zhu

20-35: High-Dimensional DSGE Models: Pointers on Prior, Estimation, Comparison, and Prediction∗

Siddhartha Chib, Minchul Shin and Fei Tan

20-33: Financial Consequences of Identity Theft

Nathan Blascak, Julia Cheney, Robert Hunt, Vyacheslav Mikhed, Dubravka Ritter and Michael Vogan

20-32: The Credit Card Act and Consumer Debt Structure

Yiwei Dou, Julapa Jagtiani, Ramain Quinn Maingi and Joshua Ronen

20-31/R: Probability Forecast Combination via Entropy Regularized Wasserstein Distance

Ryan Cumings-Menon and Minchul Shin

20-30: Bank Stress Test Results and Their Impact on Consumer Credit Markets

Sumit Agarwal, Xudong An, Lawrence R. Cordell and Raluca Roman

20-29: The Firm Size and Leverage Relationship and Its Implications for Entry and Business Concentration

Satyajit Chatterjee and Burcu Eyigungor

20-28: VACANCY CHAINS

Michael Elsby, Ryan Michaels and David Ratner

20-27: Labor Supply Within the Firm

Michele Battisti, Ryan Michaels and Choonsung Park

20-26: Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic

Frank Schorfheide and Dongho Song

20-25: Identification Through Sparsity in Factor Models

Simon Freyaldenhoven

20-24: Rational Inattention via Ignorance Equivalence

Roc Armenter, Michèle Müller-Itten and Zachary Stangebye

20-23: The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor Supply Elasticities and Wage Rigidity

Isabel Cairo, Shigeru Fujita and Camilo Morales-Jimenez

20-22: Forecasting Consumption Spending Using Credit Bureau Data

Dean Croushore and Stephanie Wilshusen