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Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back

Abel Brodeur, Mathias Lé (), Marc Sangnier () and Yanos Zylberberg ()

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Abstract: Using 50,000 tests published in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained solely by journals favoring rejection of the null hypothesis. We observe a two-humped camel shape with missing p-values between 0.25 and 0.10 that can be retrieved just after the 0.05 threshold and represent 10-20 percent of marginally rejected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers inflate the value of just-rejected tests by choosing "significant" specifications. We propose a method to measure this residual and describe how it varies by article and author characteristics. (JEL A11, C13)

Keywords: Economie; quantitative (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-01
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-amu.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01447851
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Published in American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, 2016, 8 (1), pp.1--32

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