Forecasting Skills in Experimental Market: Illusion or Reality?

Brice Corgnet, Cary Deck (), Mark Desantis and David Porter
Additional contact information
Mark Desantis: Chapman University

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: There is an ongoing debate regarding the degree to which a forecaster's ability to draw correct inferences from market signals is real or illusory. This paper attempts to shed light on the debate by examining how personal characteristics do or do not affect forecaster success. Specifically, we investigate the role of fluid intelligence, manipulativeness, and theory of mind on forecast accuracy in experimental asset markets. We find that intelligence improves forecaster performance when market mispricing is low, manipulativeness improves forecaster performance when mispricing is high, and the degree to which theory of mind skills matter depends on both the level of mispricing and how information is displayed. All three of these results are consistent with hypotheses derived from the previous literature. Additionally, we observe that male forecasters outperform female forecasters after controlling for intelligence, manipulativeness, and theory of mind skills as well as risk aversion. Interestingly, we do not find any evidence that forecaster performance improves with experience across markets or within markets.

Keywords: Forecasting skills; forecasting; Experimental asset markets; theory of mind; manipulativeness; cognitive skills (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-07-01
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Published in Management Science, 2022, 68 (7), 5216-5232 p. ⟨10.1287/mnsc.2021.4160⟩

There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it.

Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality? (2022)
Working Paper: Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality? (2020)
Working Paper: Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality? (2020)
Working Paper: Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality? (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04325544

DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2021.4160

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().