Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade?

Andrew Rose

No 182002, Working Papers from Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research

Abstract: This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard "gravity" model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over 50 years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns than outsiders. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.

Keywords: empirical; bilateral; panel; gravity; GATT; GSP; international; multilateral; panel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2002-10
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (66)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? (2004)
Working Paper: Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? (2002)
Working Paper: Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? (2002)
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