Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?

Andrew Rose

No 3538, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This Paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard ?gravity? model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over fifty years and 175 countries. Despite an extensive search, I am basically unable to find positive significant effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.

Keywords: Empirical; Bilateral; Panel; Gravity; Gatt; Gsp; International; Multilateral (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-09
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (74)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? (2004)
Working Paper: Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade? (2002)
Working Paper: Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? (2002)
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