The Colombian Conflict: Uribe’s First 17 Months

Jorge Restrepo and Michael Spagat

No 04/09, Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics from Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London

Abstract: Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under Uribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply to long-run averages since 1988, lower for April- December, 2003; government- guerrilla clashes at all-time highs, exceeding guerrilla attacks; civilian killings dropping sharply and continuously to all-time lows, mainly from decreased paramilitary attacks; combatant killings rising sharply to all-time highs; guerrilla tactics shifting toward indiscriminate attacking, forcing civilian injuries to long-run highs; government-toguerrilla casualty ratios in clashes falling; government paramilitary clashes increasing but still uncommon; paramilitary performance in clashes poor and worsening; guerrilla paramilitary clashes dropping sharply; the ELN seriously weakened, mounting few attacks.

Keywords: Conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2004-07, Revised 2004-07
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Related works:
Working Paper: Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months (2004)
Working Paper: The Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months (2004)
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