The Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months

Michael Spagat and Jorge Restrepo

No 4570, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under Uribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply against long-run averages since 1988, lower for April-December, 2003; government-guerrilla clashes at all-time highs, exceeding guerrilla attacks; civilian killings dropping sharply and continuously to all-time lows, mainly from decreased paramilitary attacks; combatant killings rising sharply to all-time highs; guerrilla tactics shifting toward indiscriminate attacking, forcing civilian injuries to long-run highs; government-to-guerrilla casualty ratios in clashes falling; government paramilitary clashes increasing but still uncommon; paramilitary performance in clashes poor and worsening; guerrilla paramilitary clashes dropping sharply; the ELN seriously weakened, mounting few attacks.

Keywords: Conflict; Colombia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-08
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Working Paper: Colombian Conflict: Uribe's First 17 Months (2004)
Working Paper: The Colombian Conflict: Uribe’s First 17 Months (2004)
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