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The Output Decline in the Aftermath of Reform; The Cases of Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Romania

Jonathan Ostry (), Eduardo Borensztein and Dimitri Demekas

No 1992/059, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper analyzes the declines in economic activity experienced by Bulgaria, the Czech and Slovak Federal Republic (CSFR), and Romania in the period since the initiation of market-oriented reforms in these countries. The paper reviews developments in the three countries and empirically investigates two questions that are key to the interpretation of the output decline: First, to what extent does the output fall reflect “structural change” (or a reallocation of resources across sectors) rather than a conventional recession? Second, to what extent have demand-side or supply-side forces been dominant in generating the output decline?

Keywords: Employment; Exports; Comparative advantage; Industrial sector; Energy pricing; WP,economic activity,supply and demand,price-output correlation,U.S. dollar (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 60
Date: 1992-07-01
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