Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

Douglas Laxton, Alasdair Scott and David Rose

No 2009/065, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.

Keywords: WP; IFT regime; data problem; staff motivation; central bank; exchange rate; output gap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 67
Date: 2009-03-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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