Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States

Alina Carare, Catherine Koh and Yorbol Yakhshilikov

No 2023/017, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: Undocumented migration from the Northern Triangle countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) to the United States has been steadily increasing over the past 30 years, accelerating at times. The paper investigates what factors could explain this fact, by estimating an investment decision model, using annual data over 1990-2019. Economic labor market conditions (real wages and unemployment rates, especially in the U.S.) play a major role in explaining undocumented migration. Less explored drivers of undocumented migration tied to living conditions at home also explain well undocumented migration (natural disasters, coffee production, higher temperatures, and homicide rates). Tighter border enforcement measures act as a deterrent, and perceptions regarding changes of these measures could also drive up undocumented migration at times. Policies that address the root causes of migration at home, including with the U.S. help, are essential in reducing the difference between perceived benefits and expected costs of migration.

Keywords: International migration; undocumented migration; U.S. Department of Agriculture; investment decision theory; U.S. Department of Homeland Security; NT country; Migration; Real wages; Income; Unemployment rate; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere; Global (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36
Date: 2023-01-27
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int, nep-mig and nep-ure
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