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Unveiling diversity in agricultural markets projections: from EU to Member States. A medium-term outlook with the AGMEMOD model

Petra Salamon (), Martin Banse (), Jesus Barreiro Hurle (), Ondrej Chaloupka (), Trevor Donnellan (), Emil Erjavec (), Thomas Fellmann, Kevin Hanrahan (), Marlen Hass (), Roel Jongeneel (), Verena Laquai (), Myrna Van Leeuwen (), Andras Molnar (), Marie Pechrova (), Guna Salputra, Willy Baltussen (), Josef Efken (), Sophie Helaine (), Jobst Jungehulsing (), Oliver Von Ledebur (), Ilona Rac () and Fabien Santini
Additional contact information
Petra Salamon: Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI)
Jesus Barreiro Hurle: European Commission – JRC, https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en
Ondrej Chaloupka: Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information
Trevor Donnellan: Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority (TEAGASC)
Kevin Hanrahan: Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority (TEAGASC)
Marlen Hass: Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI)
Roel Jongeneel: Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR)
Verena Laquai: Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI)
Myrna Van Leeuwen: Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR)
Andras Molnar: Research Institute of Agricultural Economics (AKI)
Marie Pechrova: Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information
Willy Baltussen: Wageningen Economic Research Institute (WEcR)
Josef Efken: Thunen Institute of Market Analysis (TI)
Sophie Helaine: European Commission – DG AGRI
Jobst Jungehulsing: Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Germany
Oliver Von Ledebur: Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Germany
Ilona Rac: University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty

Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Jesús Barreiro-Hurlé

No JRC109115, JRC Working Papers from Joint Research Centre (Seville site)

Abstract: Every year the European Commission provides mid-term projections for agricultural markets. These projections are reported for the EU-28 aggregate and split into EU-15 and EU-N13 to reflect the diversity existing between the pre- and post-2004 Member States. However, the diversity of European agriculture goes beyond these two aggregates. This report presents the results of projections for agricultural markets in the EU Member States by 2026, generated using the AGMEMOD (Agriculture Member State Modelling) model. The projections are consistent with the European Commission's 2016 Mid-Term Outlook and represent production, consumption, yields, and trade for the main commodity groups (cereals, oilseeds, dairy and meats). In addition, the main characteristics of the model and the partnership that manages it are described. The report also provides examples of further analysis that can be performed with AGMEMOD in terms of country- or region-specific developments, focusing on agricultural markets in the EU-N13, and in terms of the relations between a single Member State and the rest of the EU, in this case focusing on the United Kingdom and the EU. Furthermore, an analysis of the implementation of coupled support in the EU Member States is presented. The report finishes with some testimonies of policy makers about the role AGMEMOD plays in their policy analysis, and sketching how AGMEMOD might develop in the mid-term.

Keywords: AGMEMOD; modelling; agriculture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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