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Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture: 2021 update

Emanuele Ferrari (), Thomas Chatzopoulos (), Ignacio Perez Dominguez (), Pierre Boulanger, Kirsten Boysen-Urban, Mihaly Himics and Robert M’barek
Additional contact information
Thomas Chatzopoulos: European Commission – JRC, https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en
Robert M’barek: European Commission – JRC, https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en

No JRC123037, JRC Working Papers from Joint Research Centre (Seville site)

Abstract: This report investigates the potential effects of 12 free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. For this, it quantifies the cumulated sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand, and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights on the evolution of supply, demand, and farm-gate prices for the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets. In contrast to a forecast exercise, this analysis compares two variants of a trade liberalisation scenario (conservative and ambitious) to a business-as-usual (baseline) situation in 2030. The study confirms that the analysed free trade agreements have the potential to benefit the EU agri-food sector when considered simultaneously. It also highlights the vulnerability of the beef, sheep meat, poultry, sugar, and rice sectors.

Keywords: CGE; PE; modelling; trade; agriculture; EU (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 F11 F17 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 104 pages
Date: 2021-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-int
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