Potential effects of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on African agri-food sectors and food security

Antti Simola, Ole Boysen, Emanuele Ferrari, Victor Nechifor and Pierre Boulanger
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Pierre Boulanger: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No JRC126054, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, which entered into force at the beginning of 2021, aims to boost intra-African trade and to accelerate economic development on the continent. This report complements previous continental economy-wide assessments of the impacts of the AfCFTA by providing a more comprehensive description of the trade agreement’s effects on food systems and food security. The report employs a global, multiregional model to determine the trade creation and diversion effects of four liberalisation scenarios defined by various policy objectives. The main findings show that the trade agreement will be a positive contributor both to economic growth through higher value added production and to trade diversification. Food consumption across the continent will also increase. A coordinated liberalisation approach to promote trade in agri-food products will further boost food security outcomes. Nevertheless, food prices will increase slightly in most regions, showing the need for further consideration of food affordability aspects in lower-income groups. Results also highlight the importance of non-tariff measures and the capacity of the AfCFTA to reduce the non-tariff costs of intra-African trade.

Keywords: Africa; trade agreement; CGE; food security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 F15 N57 O55 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 118 pages
Date: 2021-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-int
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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