The Impacts of African Continental Free Trade Area on COMESA

Antti Simola (), Emanuele Ferrari, Victor Nechifor (), Ole Boysen, Jane Kibiru and Christopher Hugh Onyango
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Antti Simola: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Victor Nechifor: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No JRC138532, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: This study analyses the impact of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) on the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) using a recursively dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, MAGNET. The study considers two policy measures: cuts in bilateral tariff rates and the reduction of non-tariff measures (NTMs) in intra-African trade flows. The results show that AfCFTA can generate an additional 0.55% increase in COMESA's economic growth by 2035, with a corresponding increase in household disposable income and purchasing power for lower-income households. The study also finds that COMESA will increase its total trade, especially with African trade partners, and diversify its export and import markets in Africa. The AfCFTA is expected to promote industrialization in COMESA through trade creation in manufactured goods and increase the share of agricultural consumption imports. However, non-tariff barriers remain a challenge in facilitating trade into the African markets.

Date: 2025-01
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