Shrinking populations become the norm

Lewis Dijkstra (), Paola Casati, Ana Paula Seraphim (), Eleni Papadimitriou, Philipp Ueffing () and Fabrizio Natale ()
Additional contact information
Lewis Dijkstra: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Ana Paula Seraphim: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Philipp Ueffing: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en
Fabrizio Natale: European Commission - JRC, https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/index_en

No JRC148534, JRC Research Reports from Joint Research Centre

Abstract: This policy brief examines recent and projected demographic trends across urban-rural typologies including remoteness. It shows that population decline is becoming increasingly widespread: the share of the EU population living in shrinking regions is projected to rise from 36% in 2025 to 55% by 2045. Population growth and decline are driven by different demographic mechanisms. Growth is mainly sustained by migration, whereas population reductions primarily reflect natural change. Urban regions record the largest migration gains and the smallest natural losses, while rural and remote regions experience the smallest migration gains and the largest natural losses. These differences are also reflected in population structure: urban regions tend to be younger and more likely to grow, whereas rural and remote regions are older, have higher male-to-female ratios and are more exposed to population decline. By 2035, around one third of urban residents and three quarters of rural and remote residents are projected to live in shrinking regions. Across all types of regions, the population under 20 is projected to decline and the population aged 65 and over to increase, with the strongest contraction of the working-age population occurring in rural and remote regions. As shrinking regions become the norm in the EU, regional development strategies will have to adapt to population reductions. At the same time, the reduction of the working-age population, particularly in rural and remote regions, and the rapid growth of the population aged 65 and over will have important implications for economic growth, health care, public services and transport systems. The analysis combines ARDECO data for the past decade with the EUROPOP2025 regional population projections, produced by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre with support from Eurostat.

Date: 2026-10
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