Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900

Murat Iyigun, Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian

No 10475, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: This paper investigates the long-run effects of climate change on conflict by examining cooling from 1400-1900 CE, a period that includes most of the Little Ice Age. We construct a geo-referenced and digitized database of conflicts in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East from 1400-1900, which we merge with historical temperature data. We first show that during this time, cooling is associated with increased conflict. Then, turning to the dynamics of cooling, we allow the effects of cooling over a fifty-year period to depend on the extent of cooling during the preceding fifty-year period. We find that the effect of cooling on conflict is significantly larger if the same location experienced cooling during the preceding period. We interpret this as evidence that the adverse effect of climate change intensifies with its duration.

Keywords: environment; development; political economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 P16 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 66 pages
Date: 2017-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-his
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (30)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900 (2017)
Working Paper: Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900 (2017)
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